Cambridge United take on Ipswich Town at the Abbey Stadium on Saturday afternoon, in a battle between two teams at opposite ends of the League One table. The hosts are in 23rd place, having acquired just 25 points from their 27 games up to this point, while the visitors are up in third, just four points shy of the automatic promotion places.
Cambridge’s very poor record in front of goal is largely to blame for their disappointing season so far, having scored just 23 goals, the joint-fewest of any side in the third tier, and they have shown little sign of improvement recently.
The U’s have won just one of their last 10 games in all competitions, scoring just two goals in their last five matches, and to make things worse they have been on the receiving end of some very heavy defeats.
Four of the Amber Army’s last five matches have been away from home, losing 5-0 at Sheffield Wednesday and 5-1 against Shrewsbury Town, having previously looked fairly solid at the back considering their league position during their matches in 2022.
As such, Mark Bonner will be happy that his side are back on home soil, where they have fared pretty well against some of the better teams in League One this season, holding league-leaders Plymouth Argyle and fifth-placed Bolton Wanderers to 0-0 draws.
In our view, Ipswich Town certainly have the ability to create the chances to score more than once when they meet Cambridge United, who may well struggle getting goals.
We therefore think that it’s going to be a fairly comfortable 0-2 victory for Ipswich Town at the end of the match.
This match will start from 8:30 pm
This match will take place on 4 February 2023
While Cambridge did not emerge with the three points in their last match, it was an improved showing, and so Bonner is unlikely to make too many changes to the starting XI.
Sam Smith is the U’s’ top scorer in League One this season with six goals, and he is poised to lead the line again alongside Joe Ironside, who has five goals to his name in the third tier.
Fejiri Okenabirhie is another option in attack, but he has only recently returned from a long injury lay-off, and he is more likely to feature as a substitute.
Ipswich made wholesale changes for their FA Cup tie against Burnley, and they are expected to revert to a more familiar starting lineup, with Freddie Ladapo coming in for George Hirst in the attack.
Elsewhere, Conor Chaplin is likely to return on the right-wing, having scored 12 goals in League One this season, the joint-third highest tally, with Kayden Jackson dropping to the bench.
Mitov; Morrison, R. Bennett, Jones; L. Bennett, Digby, McGrandles, Brophy, Worman; Ironside, Smith
Walton; Clarke, Keogh, Edmundson; Burns, Evans, Morsy, Davis; Chaplin, Broadhead, Ladapo
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 67.49%. A draw has a probability of 19.2% and a win for Cambridge United has a probability of 13.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win is 0-2 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (11.1%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.14%), while for a Cambridge United win it is 1-0 (4.29%).
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Cambridge United vs Ipswich Town a great match to watch, Ipswich Town will win.